Recalibrating Moscow’s Strategies in Asia Russia and Southeast Asia in a Multipolar World
Resumo
Russia’s partnership with China acted as a strategic cushion for the country’s leadership to launch the military operation in Ukraine. At the same time, warm relations with long-term allies in Asia reinforced Russia’s decision to make such a dangerous move and take the risks of being cut-off financially from the West. In this sense, relations not only with China but with other Asian middle and small powers is crucial for Russia’s development in the upcoming years. Southeast Asia appears to be one of the most important prospective partners. Russia-Southeast Asia relations shows that despite evident achievements in various spheres, Russia’s plans in the region remain unsubstantiated in terms of policies and lack a comprehensive strategy. Ultimately, Russia has first to determine to what extent it is serious on its “reorientation” to Asia and what it expects from it, and whether it is ready to recalibrate substantially its relationship with Southeast Asia.
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Referências
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ASEAN. ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Statement on The Situation in Ukraine. 26 February 2022.
BAINUS, Arry; MANURUNG, Hendra. Indonesia-Russia Strategic Partnership in Southeast Asia. Jurnal Ilmiah Hubungan Internasional, 17(1), 77–96, 2021. https://doi.org/10.26593/jihi.v17i1.3488.77-96
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BUSBARAT, Pongphisoot. “Bamboo Swirling in the Wind”: Thailand’s Foreign Policy Imbalance between China and the United States. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 38(2), 233-57, 2016. DOI: 10.1355/cs38-2c
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CHONGKITTAVORN, Kavi. Indonesia ramps up diplomatic profile. Khmer Times. 4 August 2022. Available at
CLUNAN, Anne. Historical aspirations and the domestic politics of Russia's pursuit of international status. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 47 281-290, 2014.
DAVE, Bhavna. Russia’s Asia Pivot: Engaging the Russian Far East, China and Southeast Asia. Singapore: Rajaratnam School of International Studies, 2016.
EASTRUSSIA(a). Aziatskiy vector rossiyskoy ekonomiki. 6 September 2022. Available at:
EASTRUSSIA(b). Prokladyvaya novye eksportnye marshuty. 3 November 2022. Available at:
GORBACHEVA, Valeriya; TOLORAYA, Georgii. Rossiya rasstavit prioritety. Rossiiskaya gazeta, 28 August 2018. Available at. Accessed 30 May 2019.
HUAN, Amanda; THAMBIPILLAI, Pushpa. The “other” major power in the region: Russia and Southeast Asia. Oriental Institute Journal. 2019(4): 65-77, 2019. DOI: dx.doi.org/10.24866/2542-1611/2019-4/67-79
HONG, Mark; LUGG, Amy; SUMSKY, Viktor. ASEAN-Russia: Foundations and Future Prospects. Singapore: ISEAS Publishing, 2012.
KANAEV, Evgeny; KOROLEV, Alexander. Reenergizing the Russia-ASEAN Relationship: The Eurasian Opportunity. Asian Politics & Policy, 10(4), 723-751, 2019. DOI: 10.1111/aspp.12426
KAPOOR, Nivedita. Russia’s Relations in Southeast Asia since 2014: Continuity and Change. Observer Research Foundation. Occasional Paper, 267, August 2020.
KIREEV, Alexandr. Rossiiskii Dal’nii Vostok v transgranichnykh otnosheniyakh s ATR: obsor dinamiki 1990–2017 gg. Oikumena, 1(2019): 35–45.
KOLDUNOVA, Ekaterina. Asiatskiy mul´tilateralizm: proverka na prochnost’. Russian International Affairs Council. 23 August 2022. Available at.
KOLDUNOVA, Ekaterina; RANGSIMAPORN, Paradorn. Russia-Thailand Relations: Historical Background and Contemporary Developments. In: HONG, Mark; LUGG, Amy; SUMSKY, Viktor. ASEAN-Russia: Foundations and Future Prospects. Singapore: ISEAS Publishing, 2012. p. 160-172. https://doi.org/10.1355/9789814379588-024
KOROLEV, Alexandr. Novy “povorot” ili probuksova: vliyanie ukrainskogo krisisa na otnosheniya Rossii i ASEAN. Russian International Affairs Council. 17 March 2022. Available at:
KOROSTIKOV, Mikhail. Druzhba na rasstoyanii ruki. Kommersant, 31 May 2019. Available at. Accessed 23 August 2022.
KORTUNOV, Andrei. Osobykh ozhidaniy v otnoshenii samite na Bali rossiysskoe rukavodstvo ne imeet. Russian International Affairs Council. 11 November 2022. Available at:
KUKLIN, Nikita. Diplomatiya garmoniya I dobykh uslug: global’nye shagi presidenta dzhoko vidodo. Russian International Affairs Council. 4 July 2022. Available at:
LARUELLE, Marlene. 2014. Russia’s National Identity and Foreign Policy toward the Asia-Pacific. The Asan Forum. 24 January 2014. Available at:
LEICHTOVA, Magda. Misunderstanding Russia: Russian Foreign Policy and the West. England: Ashgate, 2014.
LISSOVOLIK, Yaroslav. The Year of ASEAN Centrality. Russian International Affairs Council. 22 July 2022. Available at
LOKSHIN, Grigoriy. Sotrudnichestvo c V’etnamom – chast’ Rossiyskogo “povorota na vostok”. Nezavisimaya gazeta. 29 November 2021. Available at. Accessed 14 October 2022.
LUKYANOV, Fyodor. Indispensable Nation. Russian in Global Affairs. 25 September 2013. Available at
LUKYANOV, Fyodor. Na peredovoi. Russia in Global Affairs. 1 May 2022. Available at:
MAHASETH, Harsh; WONG, Natalie. Understanding the Intricacies between Southeast Asia and Russia. Asian Research Journal of Arts & Social Sciences. 16(2): 10-22, 2022.
MEZHDUNARODNYE OTNOSHENIYA. Rossiia - Siam. 1863–1917: Dokumenty i materialy. 1997. Moscow.
MUELLER, Lukas Maximilian. Challenges to ASEAN centrality and hedging in connectivity governance—regional and national pressure points. The Pacific Review, 34(5), 747-777, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2020.1757741
PHIRAMONTRI, Rom. Rol’ imperatora Nikolaya II v bor’be za sokhranenie nezavisimosti Siama. K 120-letiyu diplomaticheskikh otnosheniy Tailanda i Rossii. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta, 12, 46-62. 2017.
PHUBUNLAP, Orathai. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Implications for Thailand and ASEAN. International Studies Center. 3 March 2022. Available at:. Accessed 29 July 2022.
PIETRASIAK, Malgorzata. Russia in the process of constructing regional structures in Southeast Asia. Eastern Review, 2021, T. 10. https://doi.org/10.18778/1427-9657.10.02
PRIMAMEDIA. Probki vo Vladivostoke – ne tol’ko na dorogakh: akvatoriyu stolitsy DFO zapolnili suda-grusoperebozchiki. 24 November 2022. Available at:
RANGSIMAPORN, Paradorn. Russian perceptions and policies in a multipolar East Asia under Yeltsin and Putin. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific. Volume 9(2009), 207–244.
RENTV. V Indonezii razmestili banner c obnovlennoy rossiyskoy kartoy. 16 November 2022. Available at: Accessed 17 November 2022.
SAFRONOVA, Elena. Antirossiyskie sanktsii: vzglyad iz Kitaya. EastRussia. 1 September 2022. Available at:
SEAH, Sharon. et al. The State of Southeast Asia: 2022. Singapore: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 2022.
SKOSYREV, Vladimir. Rossiya teryaet vliyanie v Yugo-vostochnoy Asii. Nezavisimaya gazeta. 10 November 2022. Available at:. Accessed 12 November 2022.
SMITH, Hanna. Putin’s Third Term and Russia as a Great Power. In: BASSIN, Mark; SUSLOV, Mark. Eurasia 2.0: Russian Geopolitics in the Age of New Media. Lanham: Lexington Books, 2016.
STOREY, Ian. The Russia-Ukraine War and its Potential Impact on Russia’s Arms Sales to Southeast Asia. ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute. (47) 2022.
TASS. Putin zayavil o formirovanii mnogopolyarnoi sistemy mira. 30 June 2022. Available at:. Accessed 20 November 2022.
TCHAKAROVA, Velina. The DragonBear: Putin’s Choices. Observer Research Foundation. 28 April 2022. Available at
THAKUR, Ramesh; THAYER, Carlyle. The Soviet Union as An Asian-pacific Power: Implications of Gorbachev's 1986 Vladivostok Initiative. London: Westview, 1988.
THE ASEAN SECRETARIAT. Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC). 2022. Available at:
TRENIN, Dmitri. Russia has made a decisive break with the West and it is ready to shape a new world order. Russian International Affairs Council. 6 July 2022. Available at:
TROFIMCHUK, Grigoriy. Kak Rossii ispol’zobat’ potentsial ASEAN. Nezavisimaya gazeta. 17 October 2022. Available at. Accessed 07 November 2022.
TROFIMOV, Dmitri. Ekonomist Kashin: Statistika ne otrazhaet real’nyi rost torgovli mezhdu Rossiey i Kitaem. Obshestvennaya sluzhba novostey. Available at:
TSYGANKOV, Andrei. Vladimir Putin's Vision of Russia as a Normal Great Power. Post-Soviet Affairs, 21,2 132-58, 2005.
TSYGANKOV, Andrei. G – Great Powerness. Russia in Global Affairs, 18(1), 85-91, 2020.
TSVETOV, Anton. After Crimea: Southeast Asia in Russia's Foreign Policy Narrative. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 38 (1):55–80, 2016.
TURCSANYI, Richard Q; DUBRAVCIKOVA, Klara; KIRONSKA, Kristina; WANG, Tao; IOCOVOZZI, James; GRIES, Peter; VASEKOVA, Veronika; CHUBB, Andrew. Chinese views of the world at the time of the Russia-Ukraine war. Evidence from a March 2022 public opinion survey. Olomouc: Palacky University Olomouc, 2022.
VERSHININA, Valeria. Rossiya I V’etnam v poiskakh novykh tochek peresecheniya. Russian International Affairs Council. 13 July 2022. Available at:
VUVING, Alexander. Vietnam’s Approach to China: Bamboo Diplomacy With Neo-tributary Characteristics. The Diplomat. 12 November 2022. Available at:
WISHNICK, Elizabeth. The China- Russia ‘no limits’ partnership is still going strong, with regime security as top priority. South China Morning Post. 29 September 2022. Available at:. Accessed 11 November 2022.
YUENYONG, Kan. Thailand and ASEAN Centrality Geopolitics. ASEAN PLUS+ Studies, 3(1), 44-58, 2022. Available at:
ZOLOTUKHIN, Ivan. K voprosu o protivostoyanii Kitaya i V’etnama v Yuzhno-Kitayskom more: istoriya i sovremennost. Oikumena, 3(2022): 135–42.
ASEAN. ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Statement on The Situation in Ukraine. 26 February 2022.
BAINUS, Arry; MANURUNG, Hendra. Indonesia-Russia Strategic Partnership in Southeast Asia. Jurnal Ilmiah Hubungan Internasional, 17(1), 77–96, 2021. https://doi.org/10.26593/jihi.v17i1.3488.77-96
BASHKATOVA, Anastasia. Na Dal’nem vostoke ne razvernut’sya k Asii. Nezavisimaya gazeta. 6 July 2022. Available at:
BORDACHEV, Timofey. Sudba “bol’shoi dvadtsatki” reshaet’sya v boyakh na Ukraine. Vzglyad. 11 November 2022. Available at:
BUSBARAT, Pongphisoot. “Bamboo Swirling in the Wind”: Thailand’s Foreign Policy Imbalance between China and the United States. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 38(2), 233-57, 2016. DOI: 10.1355/cs38-2c
CAFRUNY, Alan; FOUSKAS, Vassilis; MALLINSON, William; VOYNITSKY, Andrey. Ukraine, Multipolarity and the Crisis of Grand Strategies. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 14 June 2022. DOI: 10.1080/19448953.2022.2084881
CHONGKITTAVORN, Kavi. Indonesia ramps up diplomatic profile. Khmer Times. 4 August 2022. Available at
CLUNAN, Anne. Historical aspirations and the domestic politics of Russia's pursuit of international status. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 47 281-290, 2014.
DAVE, Bhavna. Russia’s Asia Pivot: Engaging the Russian Far East, China and Southeast Asia. Singapore: Rajaratnam School of International Studies, 2016.
EASTRUSSIA(a). Aziatskiy vector rossiyskoy ekonomiki. 6 September 2022. Available at:
EASTRUSSIA(b). Prokladyvaya novye eksportnye marshuty. 3 November 2022. Available at:
GORBACHEVA, Valeriya; TOLORAYA, Georgii. Rossiya rasstavit prioritety. Rossiiskaya gazeta, 28 August 2018. Available at
HUAN, Amanda; THAMBIPILLAI, Pushpa. The “other” major power in the region: Russia and Southeast Asia. Oriental Institute Journal. 2019(4): 65-77, 2019. DOI: dx.doi.org/10.24866/2542-1611/2019-4/67-79
HONG, Mark; LUGG, Amy; SUMSKY, Viktor. ASEAN-Russia: Foundations and Future Prospects. Singapore: ISEAS Publishing, 2012.
KANAEV, Evgeny; KOROLEV, Alexander. Reenergizing the Russia-ASEAN Relationship: The Eurasian Opportunity. Asian Politics & Policy, 10(4), 723-751, 2019. DOI: 10.1111/aspp.12426
KAPOOR, Nivedita. Russia’s Relations in Southeast Asia since 2014: Continuity and Change. Observer Research Foundation. Occasional Paper, 267, August 2020.
KIREEV, Alexandr. Rossiiskii Dal’nii Vostok v transgranichnykh otnosheniyakh s ATR: obsor dinamiki 1990–2017 gg. Oikumena, 1(2019): 35–45.
KOLDUNOVA, Ekaterina. Asiatskiy mul´tilateralizm: proverka na prochnost’. Russian International Affairs Council. 23 August 2022. Available at.
KOLDUNOVA, Ekaterina; RANGSIMAPORN, Paradorn. Russia-Thailand Relations: Historical Background and Contemporary Developments. In: HONG, Mark; LUGG, Amy; SUMSKY, Viktor. ASEAN-Russia: Foundations and Future Prospects. Singapore: ISEAS Publishing, 2012. p. 160-172. https://doi.org/10.1355/9789814379588-024
KOROLEV, Alexandr. Novy “povorot” ili probuksova: vliyanie ukrainskogo krisisa na otnosheniya Rossii i ASEAN. Russian International Affairs Council. 17 March 2022. Available at:
KOROSTIKOV, Mikhail. Druzhba na rasstoyanii ruki. Kommersant, 31 May 2019. Available at
KORTUNOV, Andrei. Osobykh ozhidaniy v otnoshenii samite na Bali rossiysskoe rukavodstvo ne imeet. Russian International Affairs Council. 11 November 2022. Available at:
KUKLIN, Nikita. Diplomatiya garmoniya I dobykh uslug: global’nye shagi presidenta dzhoko vidodo. Russian International Affairs Council. 4 July 2022. Available at:
LARUELLE, Marlene. 2014. Russia’s National Identity and Foreign Policy toward the Asia-Pacific. The Asan Forum. 24 January 2014. Available at:
LEICHTOVA, Magda. Misunderstanding Russia: Russian Foreign Policy and the West. England: Ashgate, 2014.
LISSOVOLIK, Yaroslav. The Year of ASEAN Centrality. Russian International Affairs Council. 22 July 2022. Available at
LOKSHIN, Grigoriy. Sotrudnichestvo c V’etnamom – chast’ Rossiyskogo “povorota na vostok”. Nezavisimaya gazeta. 29 November 2021. Available at
LUKYANOV, Fyodor. Indispensable Nation. Russian in Global Affairs. 25 September 2013. Available at
LUKYANOV, Fyodor. Na peredovoi. Russia in Global Affairs. 1 May 2022. Available at:
MAHASETH, Harsh; WONG, Natalie. Understanding the Intricacies between Southeast Asia and Russia. Asian Research Journal of Arts & Social Sciences. 16(2): 10-22, 2022.
MEZHDUNARODNYE OTNOSHENIYA. Rossiia - Siam. 1863–1917: Dokumenty i materialy. 1997. Moscow.
MUELLER, Lukas Maximilian. Challenges to ASEAN centrality and hedging in connectivity governance—regional and national pressure points. The Pacific Review, 34(5), 747-777, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2020.1757741
PHIRAMONTRI, Rom. Rol’ imperatora Nikolaya II v bor’be za sokhranenie nezavisimosti Siama. K 120-letiyu diplomaticheskikh otnosheniy Tailanda i Rossii. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta, 12, 46-62. 2017.
PHUBUNLAP, Orathai. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Implications for Thailand and ASEAN. International Studies Center. 3 March 2022. Available at:
PIETRASIAK, Malgorzata. Russia in the process of constructing regional structures in Southeast Asia. Eastern Review, 2021, T. 10. https://doi.org/10.18778/1427-9657.10.02
PRIMAMEDIA. Probki vo Vladivostoke – ne tol’ko na dorogakh: akvatoriyu stolitsy DFO zapolnili suda-grusoperebozchiki. 24 November 2022. Available at:
RANGSIMAPORN, Paradorn. Russian perceptions and policies in a multipolar East Asia under Yeltsin and Putin. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific. Volume 9(2009), 207–244.
RENTV. V Indonezii razmestili banner c obnovlennoy rossiyskoy kartoy. 16 November 2022. Available at:
SAFRONOVA, Elena. Antirossiyskie sanktsii: vzglyad iz Kitaya. EastRussia. 1 September 2022. Available at:
SEAH, Sharon. et al. The State of Southeast Asia: 2022. Singapore: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 2022.
SKOSYREV, Vladimir. Rossiya teryaet vliyanie v Yugo-vostochnoy Asii. Nezavisimaya gazeta. 10 November 2022. Available at:
SMITH, Hanna. Putin’s Third Term and Russia as a Great Power. In: BASSIN, Mark; SUSLOV, Mark. Eurasia 2.0: Russian Geopolitics in the Age of New Media. Lanham: Lexington Books, 2016.
STOREY, Ian. The Russia-Ukraine War and its Potential Impact on Russia’s Arms Sales to Southeast Asia. ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute. (47) 2022.
TASS. Putin zayavil o formirovanii mnogopolyarnoi sistemy mira. 30 June 2022. Available at:
TCHAKAROVA, Velina. The DragonBear: Putin’s Choices. Observer Research Foundation. 28 April 2022. Available at
THAKUR, Ramesh; THAYER, Carlyle. The Soviet Union as An Asian-pacific Power: Implications of Gorbachev's 1986 Vladivostok Initiative. London: Westview, 1988.
THE ASEAN SECRETARIAT. Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC). 2022. Available at:
TRENIN, Dmitri. Russia has made a decisive break with the West and it is ready to shape a new world order. Russian International Affairs Council. 6 July 2022. Available at:
TROFIMCHUK, Grigoriy. Kak Rossii ispol’zobat’ potentsial ASEAN. Nezavisimaya gazeta. 17 October 2022. Available at
TROFIMOV, Dmitri. Ekonomist Kashin: Statistika ne otrazhaet real’nyi rost torgovli mezhdu Rossiey i Kitaem. Obshestvennaya sluzhba novostey. Available at:
TSYGANKOV, Andrei. Vladimir Putin's Vision of Russia as a Normal Great Power. Post-Soviet Affairs, 21,2 132-58, 2005.
TSYGANKOV, Andrei. G – Great Powerness. Russia in Global Affairs, 18(1), 85-91, 2020.
TSVETOV, Anton. After Crimea: Southeast Asia in Russia's Foreign Policy Narrative. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 38 (1):55–80, 2016.
TURCSANYI, Richard Q; DUBRAVCIKOVA, Klara; KIRONSKA, Kristina; WANG, Tao; IOCOVOZZI, James; GRIES, Peter; VASEKOVA, Veronika; CHUBB, Andrew. Chinese views of the world at the time of the Russia-Ukraine war. Evidence from a March 2022 public opinion survey. Olomouc: Palacky University Olomouc, 2022.
VERSHININA, Valeria. Rossiya I V’etnam v poiskakh novykh tochek peresecheniya. Russian International Affairs Council. 13 July 2022. Available at:
VUVING, Alexander. Vietnam’s Approach to China: Bamboo Diplomacy With Neo-tributary Characteristics. The Diplomat. 12 November 2022. Available at:
WISHNICK, Elizabeth. The China- Russia ‘no limits’ partnership is still going strong, with regime security as top priority. South China Morning Post. 29 September 2022. Available at:
YUENYONG, Kan. Thailand and ASEAN Centrality Geopolitics. ASEAN PLUS+ Studies, 3(1), 44-58, 2022. Available at:
ZOLOTUKHIN, Ivan. K voprosu o protivostoyanii Kitaya i V’etnama v Yuzhno-Kitayskom more: istoriya i sovremennost. Oikumena, 3(2022): 135–42.
Publicado
20-08-2024
Como Citar
Contreras-Luna, R., & Kunnamas, N. (2024). Recalibrating Moscow’s Strategies in Asia Russia and Southeast Asia in a Multipolar World. Estudos Internacionais: Revista De relações Internacionais Da PUC Minas, 11(3), 11-28. https://doi.org/10.5752/P.2317-773X.2023v11n3p11-28
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Special Issue – Contemporary Russia in International Relations
Copyright (c) 2024 Estudos Internacionais: revista de relações internacionais da PUC Minas
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